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The Two-child policy may not be the answer to China's aging society in the short term.
Low fertility and a labor shortage recently prompted China to launch a new family planning policy. All couples now can have two children, yet the number of births last year was less than expected.
For Qi Yanxia, a government functionary, having a second child could result in punishment, but now, in less than a month, Qi is going to give birth to her second child.
"My husband and I have always wanted to give our son a sibling, so that they can help each other when they grow up. Before the two-child policy, we were so jealous of those who had a second child. We decided to have one right after the limit was removed," said Qi Yanxia, a second-time mother-to-be.
Qi often brings her son to a children's center near the community she lives in. She says she has never thought too much about the cost of having another child. What she cares about the most is having the proper support facilities.
"This children's center provides our kids with a safe and interesting playground. More importantly, they offer free early education here. That is good news for parents who are ready for a second child," said Qi.
Qi Yanxia and her husband are just one example of many couples for whom a second child is a dream come true, but according to a survey of 10,000 families by the All-China Women's Federation, more than 50 percent don't want one. Introduced in the late 1970s and abandoned in 2016, China's one child policy has achieved what it set out to do - slow the rapid growth of the country's already vast population. That has also meant that China population is aging very quickly.
"The one-child policy brought down the population growth rate from 3 percent to 0.5 percent in the past three decades. But that has also led to an aging population, gender imbalances, and a shrinking workforce. So the family planning authorities brought up the two-child policy, which is believed to be able to balance the gender and population structures," said Zhai Zhenwu, vice president of China's Family Planning Association.
According to the China's Health and Family Planning Commission, the total number of newborns in 2016 was expected to be just over 17.5 million, only 950,000 more than that (16.55 million) in 2015, and 630,000 more than that (16.87 million) in 2014 - a less than impressive growth rate.
Given that about 90 million couples are eligible to have a second child, the actual number of second children will account for only 1 percent of the newborns in 2016.
"More than 50 percent of the eligible women are 40 and older. Due to their aging physical condition, they are less willing to have a second child. So China’s general fertility rate will still remain low," said Zhai.
He also says low fertility is a natural consequence of socio-economic development.
In a developed economy with a sound social welfare system, people are less willing to have children for the sake of old age care.
This means the two-child policy is no quick fix.
To avoid a low birth rate trap, China needs to continue to monitor its demographic data and adjust its family planning policy if necessary.
Qi Yanxia is 38 years old, and the latest adjustment came just in time. She and her family can't wait to welcome their newest member.
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